So how about those midterms?
Some of you are overjoyed at the results. Some of you are upset.
Many of you, I suspect, don’t trust the intentions of either party. (I increasingly find myself in this last camp.)
Tuesday’s results were noteworthy, but not historically unprecedented. In the 1994 midterm elections, the Republicans retook both chambers of Congress, something they had not achieved in 40 years.
That was a massive setback for President Clinton and his agenda. For a while, commentators were openly asking if President Bill Clinton was “still relevant” in American politics.
And yet, Clinton recovered and easily won reelection in 1996. Two factors contributed to his comeback: a.) Bill Clinton pivoted toward the center, and b.) the Republicans overplayed their hand.
Because the party that won the last election almost always overplays its hand.
It is a mistake to believe that any shift in American politics represents a linear historical trend. The progressive Obama era followed two terms of the conservative George W. Bush. President Obama’s progressive overreach arguably created the conditions that would lead to the election of Donald Trump in 2016.
And of course, Donald Trump’s excesses during the first two years of his second term created the blue wave of the 2026 midterms.
Tuesday’s results were a rebuke of President Trump and many of his policies. There is no denying that. But if history is any guide, two things will happen between now and 2028:
a.) The Democrats will overreach, and alienate voters in the center, and
b.) The Republican Party will pivot away from MAGA, which has clearly been discredited in this election.
Regarding b.): This doesn’t mean that individual MAGA politicians will necessarily pivot. But a new group of Republicans will emerge, who are more palatable to centrist and independent voters.
President Trump is now a lame duck. He will no longer be the gatekeeper for local Republican primaries and gubernatorial races.
I would also bet that the GOP presidential nominee in 2028 will be someone other than J.D. Vance.
For now, the blue wave is undeniable. American politics will shift to the left over the next two years—for better or for worse.
What happens in 2028 will depend on how wisely the Democrats play their winning hand, and how effectively the Republicans rebrand themselves.
History suggests that the party that lost the last election is in the catbird seat. So 2028 may be a very different election year.
-ET