Following the passage of President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”, Elon Musk has launched his America Party.
The details of Elon’s latest project have yet to fully crystallize. But given his criticism of the deficit-increasing aspects of the Big, Beautiful Bill, we might reasonably assume that fiscal conservatism will be a cornerstone of the new America Party.
I am torn in regard to third parties. On one hand, neither the Democratic nor the Republican party of the present era reflects my political and philosophical beliefs.
On the other hand, I remember the election of 1992. In 1992, Ross Perot’s third-party bid for the White House handed the presidency to Bill Clinton with 43% of the popular vote. There is reason to believe that had Ross Perot not run in 1992, George H.W. Bush, the incumbent Republican, would have been reelected.
There have been many attempts in US history to establish a viable third party, and all of them have ended similarly: as nonentities or mere spoilers. In 2004, many Democrats argued that the distraction of Ralph Nader’s third-party candidacy kept the John Kerry/John Edwards ticket from winning. They may have had a point.
Democrats may also have had a point about Jill Stein and the Green Party, helping Donald Trump win the White House in 2020 and 2024.
Third parties are a wonderful idea, in the abstract. They appear to perform a useful function in Europe, where the parliamentary system is the norm. They don’t work so well in the American system of government. This has been the case ever since the days of the first third parties, back in the 1800s.
I am therefore pessimistic about the prospects for Elon Musk’s America Party. It will probably have an impact—as yet another third-party spoiler. Probably—but not necessarily—the America Party will siphon votes from Republicans who are disaffected with the MAGA movement, splitting the conservative-leaning vote in 2028 (assuming that the American Party doesn’t fizzle out before then).
Third parties mostly disappeared in the 1970s and 1980s. The few that did make blips on the radar, like John Anderson’s independent bid in 1980, were very small blips, indeed. (John Anderson took a mere 6.6 percent of the popular vote in 1980, and zero Electoral College votes.) The modern American appeal of third parties didn’t really gain momentum until the 1990s, when the Cold War order was collapsing, and this Brave New World of ours was beginning to emerge.
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When I was growing up, things were pretty simple:
If Republicans were in power:
- Taxes would probably go down.
- Businesses would face fewer regulations.
- Defense spending might increase.
- Spending on some social programs would go down.
If Democrats were in power:
- Taxes would probably go up.
- There would be more regulations for businesses to contend with.
- Labor unions would have more clout.
- Defense spending might decrease.
- Spending on most social programs would increase.
That was it.
What about abortion? Yes, abortion was a divisive issue forty years ago, too.
But during those moderate times, the two sides had arrived at a centrist compromise: abortion would be often debated but basically legal, with some reasonable restrictions. In those days, most of the real debates about abortion concerned the definition of “reasonable restrictions”.
(Nowadays, of course, “centrist compromise” is a dirty word. Ergo, the left now wants to elevate late-term abortions to the status of a national sacrament. Republicans, meanwhile, want to ban all abortions, even in cases of rape and incest. Both sides are nuts.)
But what do I know? Elon Musk’s America Party may succeed, and usher in a new American golden age, of fiscal conservatism at home, military restraint abroad, and a mind-your-own-business approach to social issues.
But history suggests otherwise.
-ET