Election 2020: advance Ohio poll shows Trump in the lead

Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in new Ohio poll of 2020 election

You might not be an Ohioan, like yours truly. (I’m a lifelong resident of Southern Ohio.)

Nevertheless, this poll is significant, if you care about the outcome of the US presidential elections in November.

Ohio is one of that handful of “swing states” that decides each national election.

No one believes that California is going to suddenly go Republican in 2020. (The People’s Republic of California is now basically a one-party dictatorship. A GOP presidential candidate hasn’t won the Golden State since the 1980s.)

Likewise, Utah is rather unlikely to go for Joe Biden.

But the swing states might go either way. 

The swing states include not only Ohio, but also Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Florida, among others. (These are also referred to as “purple states”, being a mix of “red” and “blue”.)

Most swing states have internal, regional disparities in political sentiment. In Ohio, Columbus (the state capital), Toledo, and Cleveland lean left. The vast rural interior leans right.

Cincinnati, where I live, is complicated. Hamilton County (which is mostly inside the Cincinnati city limits) leans Democratic. The surrounding suburban and rural counties tilt Republican.

Certainly not all voters in Ohio’s “red” areas are in love with Donald Trump.

The problem, though, is the alternative. As I discussed yesterday, Biden holds little appeal for swing voters and “disaffected Republicans”. 

***

Joe Biden is a weak candidate for Democrats. too. He is a white male in a political party that dislikes (or at least distrusts) white males. Some of his past statements on race and gender would cause a Twitter meltdown if he were a Republican rather than a Democrat.

And Joe Biden is famously prone to gaffes, like this:

and this:

For what it’s worth, I’m not entirely unsympathetic toward a politician who is willing to tell a shouting autoworker that he’s “full of shit”. But in these politically correct times, Joe Biden’s record, race, age, and style are going to alienate a substantial portion of the Democratic base.

The youthful Bernies Bros? They’re going to spend Election Day smoking weed and playing video games. Likewise, African American and Hispanic Democrats are unlikely to be moved by the prospect of voting for yet another old white dude. 

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